The public sentiment surrounding the US-China trade negotiations is largely negative, highlighting frustration and skepticism about the talks' effectiveness and lack of progress. Many commentators feel that the discussions are superficial and more about political posturing than meaningful resolutions, with concerns about economic repercussions and the US's negotiating power against China.

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I find it interesting that Trump is very soft on China despite its anti-China rhetoric. Most of his so-called “anti-China” policies actually helps China. He messed up Biden’s Asia-pacific China blockade which his tariff rampage. China has more freedom in actions compared to Biden’s era. No wonder they are emboldened.

Freewhale98

Alienate friends, appease enemies. What could possibly go wrong?

MastodonParking9080

Is the consensus that the fentanyl related tariffs are actually because of trade in precursors? If China were to heavily restrict the export of precursors, is Trump likely to scrap the related tariffs?

Loud-Chemistry-5056

Trump is just getting dunked on left and right. Other countries are doing donuts on his lawn at this point.

The combination of stupid, corrupt, and incompetent doesn't make for a good negotiator, folks!

Xeynon

You see, smaller countries without the economic heft to get much concessions on their own have to get together in big unified trade blocks so that they can bargain collectively. For example, the TPP.

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Last I check, US/West never complained about all the American and Western MNC's "overcapacity".

Like, which MNC did not produce more than its own home country can consume? Goodness. All these overcapacity BS.

Open market policy until others beat you in the game. So much for rules based world order.

thinkingperson

Why would they want to? People buying their stuff gives them money, jobs and economic &amp; geopolitical influence.

As for the China to US trade, they've already found replacements for what trade they've lost with the US, and are rapidly expanding in Africa and SEA.

It's been a real eye opener how delusional most US articles are, now that the rose tinted glasses have been roughly pulled off the faces of those of us who used to admire the USA.

American exceptionalism is very real, and deeply ingrained.

x_Lyze

"Export dependent" is certainly one way to describe a global leader of trade. They aren't even shy about hiding the reason: they want China to pay more for its own domestically produced goods and to agree to sell less to the rest of the world. Not for any reason other than "the US wants you to stay in your place."


Stupid, stupid, stupid argument from this article. Our capitalist drive to outsource production to other countries makes it literally impossible to compete with state owned manufacturers, they're subsidized by the government because the cost to invest is far below the yielded benefits and cost of living adjustment.

Mattractive

I think "demanding" anything from China is not an option for the US.

It's time to speak reality: China's rise as a global economic leader ahead of the USA is already in place.

It is China that is in a position to demand from the West what it wants to maintain the balance of the capitalist "game". 

(30% of global manufacturing trade is really absurd, and will definitely increase.)

JoaozinhoVitinho

Everyone is welcome to share your thoughts. Just please follow the rules and cite your sources where applicable. Much appreciated.

NineteenEighty9

My bet is that the trade deal goes back to status quo Jan 19th and Trump declares victory and people believe him.

Irish_swede

I think he drops the China tariff to no greater than 25%, but keeps the 10% universal, he is too proud of that.

Flashy_Upstairs9004

What would even be considered optimistic to the people on this sub? This sub is filled with people who advocate for complete decoupling from china so for those nationalists higher tariffs are good as they force the decoupling

ale_93113

And then on National television we learned that China is not involved, there is no discussion, there are no tentative agreements, there is no framework for discussions, and the two parties, left later lunch. 

We did learn that Bessent wants the nation to believe that his claims of progress is the announcement speaking for China. 

Is WSJ subservient to Trump’s administration?

dyrnwyn580

I dont see the end game here.

1. Make tariff drama against the whole world at once
2. Everyone starts boycotting US products and tourism.
3. Remove tariffs and apologise profusely.
4. People still don't buy US goods or come visit.

How is this going to bring down our debt? Stock market is doing great on catering fundamentals. Bond market not so much. How are we going to refinance our debt?

ShogunMyrnn

The administration has failed to demonstrate basic competency in economic matters so far. I think it's too much to ask for that they hired someone who can.

Sigmundschadenfreude

You know those stories about Trump being an a-hole and signing up suppliers for one of his projects, taking receipt of the supplies, and then not paying for those supplies? And then renegotiating the cost of the supplies, playing BS games, and putting some small businesses out of business? 

These are the tactics you're seeing right now. 

Those are immoral tactics on the business side, they are of highly limited use on the international policy side. There are only somewhere around 200 nations, that is a limited number of countries to enter trade negotiations with. Meanwhile, there are any number of contractors and suppliers, even if you have to bring them in from out of state. Worse, any one of those 200 nations can see the results of trade negotiations on the evening news, and look up past results. This gives tactics like Trump's a highly limited use. 

But, he has a hammer. He sees every problem as a nail. We're going to see if this particular problem is a nail. Not much else we can do about that.

CombatRedRover

Xi is going to wipe the floor with that delusional nepo baby. If I weren’t stuck in this dumpster fire country, I would be very optimistic. But working people in the U.S. are about to get very poor, as if it weren’t already bad enough

Ok_Arachnid1089

Even if Trump/Bessent aren’t the people to do it, any hereafter administration is going to be confronted with the binary choice of either getting China to play fair, or we stop playing games with them at all. So at a minimum these first meetings are the basis for the beginning of talks going forward. 

I personally don’t trust China one whiff, but I’d like to be wrong.

Compoundeyesseeall

Well the big trade deal with the UK put us in a worse position, so presumably any trade deal with China will do the same.

JohannHellkite

We may as well stick this one out and get what we want.

Gitmfap

Odd_Entry2770

China has a ton more to lose with Tariffs. My guess is they make some concessions and future Tariffs are contingent on goals. I also bet China has some continued Tariffs placed on them.

Electronic-Damage-89

There’s no deal. He’s announcing they started to talk. It’s to pump the markets

Oceanbreeze871

Any chance that with any of these trade talks, with China or other countries, that there is a statement or an agreement that the other country will buy a certain amount of bonds? I know yields have been wild lately, wonder what the likelihood is of that.

dukebiker

[deleted]

moxiaoran2012

Trump and co should should shut up. Like no leaks and no tweets. They make promises before it 7s over and other team get upper hand.

ban3me

Optimistic, only because it's in the best interest of both sides to resolve the issue. But I'd be surprised if anything was settled quickly. 

From a negotiation standpoint time is on China's side. The impact of consumer goods and raw materials not shipping is going to become increasingly more visible this month and next month and that'll put more and more pressure on Congress. 

IMO a best outcome would be a deal where China gets the 10% global tariff in exchange for purchasing Boeing aircraft, importing US agricutural products, reducing the JV requiremenrts for US automakers, and promoting US domestic manufacturing for Chinese factories. 

Once China gets to 20-25% tariff it'll cause consumer goods to shift to other countries.

whatdoihia

I'm afraid to see the US position being as intransigent as Russia's position on Ukraine. What's worse is that both are naked assertions of power. Testosterone has entered the room.

MeasurementMobile747

That actually isn't the point. It will probably end up by going back to before Jan 17th and be touted as a GREAT VICTORY.

Fact is, the US credibility has a partner or place to invest has been hurt badly and damage won't go. How can a business leader decide to invest billions in the US with no visibility of what key policies will be in one month?

zedk47

Bessent is stuck between Trump’s “we will not negotiate” stance and the reality that, to resolve this, the U.S. must concede. I don’t envy his position, having once had a boss who made bold public statements that were completely irrational and impossible and then turning to me to make it happen. Bessent is going to lose, despite his public groveling to Trump.

AdiosSailing

I do believe China is at more of a disadvantage.  But Trump has shown weakness, stupidity, and ill will.  He's made it clear he doesn't know what he's doing.  He's giving incentive to embarass the U.S. if at all possible. China may be able to take advantage of that and teach him a lesson somehow.

Trump faces backlash from business lobbyists and voters, etc. While Xi is more able to weather the storm as long as he wants, due to the authoritarian style government.  I think China is more vulnerable to severe economic consequences, but Trump is more vulnerable to caving in, even if the economic consequences in the U.S. are proportionately less than China's.

yourmomwasmyfirst

I think Trump's "idea" is a good one, but he hasn't planned or executed it well.

The U.S. should not be sending China trillions of dollars for crappy products so they can build an army to challenge us.

However, Trump should be more diplomatic about the process, and should have had every contingency planned for.  Also he should not start trade wars with every country at the same time, just China or other adversaries.  Once the China situation was settled, THEN work out trade deals with allies.  And don't be a dick about it, just be business-like.

Seems like it's just a dog and pony show and/or a way to get favors for Trump and his circle. 

Stunning-Use-7052

I mean, this is an optimism thread so I don’t think this is an especially good question to ask, seems a bit baity. I’ll say there’s plenty of room for things to deescalate.

Hollow-Official

I'm hopeful that, while I never thought this strategy of using tarriffs was a good idea, that china is going to make some adjustments that open their markets a bit more and we come out ahead. maybe not today but when this is all said and done.

anomie89

Does it mean that the 55% tariffs are gone or not? Because that is the most destructive thing in the trade war.

D-MAN-FLORIDA

Am I reading this right? We’re going through what’s ok to trade without restrictions item-by-item? So both sides will specify what goods get carveouts from tariffs.

Can’t wait to hear what restrictions we are giving up. Trump is probably going to see all of our IP to China

iveseensomethings82

@CQscene in regards to your last comment: 

The tariff critics ridicule the idea of American manufacturing-but how could we credibly hope to compete with China or renewables without some kind of protectionism? 

If there was unrestricted trade with China tomorrow, no country on earth could have a competitive export economy in any sector China can outproduce in. Our auto industry, and Germany, and Japan, and Korea, would collapse in 24 hours if we allowed China to sell us cars.

One of your points you made was that there are no trade conflicts, I assume with regards to the US. But that’s not true, for two reasons:

1. The American people have not benefitted from a lowered price in consumer goods because of a simultaneous rise in pricing for things we can’t import. If we’re not benefitting from trade, it’s clear the equation has to be changed to rebalance it again. 

2. Foreign countries relying on us to dump exports to whilst simultaneously barring most of our goods under various justifications. This is one sided trade, not free trade.

China is ALREADY reviewing and approving export applications.  They're slow walking it though, and won't let the paperwork through until US industries run out of rare earths.  And even then they'll try to make sure our defense contractors are starved of critical raw materials.

Until I see a deal that both sides say is a deal, there's no deal.  Just a lot of hot air.

BarelyAirborne

Recent US-China trade talks ended without a formal deal, yet both nations agreed to continue exploring options for stabilizing their economic relationship amidst ongoing tensions.

US-China Trade Negotiations

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